This is an open access book. Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment (abbreviated as PTHA and PTRA, respectively) has evolved quickly over the past 10 to 15 years and now forms the basis of many risk mitigation efforts. Methods are largely based on those used for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment for earthquakes. However, while seismic risk can be represented by a single workflow, tsunami risk is characterized by a number of different and cascading workflows. Funded in parts by the COST Action CA18109 AGITHAR (2019-2023), a group of more than 120 experts gathered to advance the scientific basis for PTHA and PTRA. Amongst them were over 50 volunteering to contribute to this so-called “cookbook” for PTHA and PTRA.
The aim of our cookbook is to give an overview of existing methods for PTHA and PTRA, to unify the description of named workflows, and to make best practices examples available to a wider community. We use the analogy of a cookbook, because we strive to describe the ingredients, i.e., the basic building blocks of PTHA and PTRA, and give examples of good recipes, i.e., well-designed workflows for concrete application fields. Furthermore, a cookbook gives inspiration but does not necessarily standardize methods. So, while this effort aims at some standardization of methodology, it gives enough freedom to build on this knowledge to further develop the field. The book is intended for scientists, but also practitioners and decision-makers in tsunami hazard and risk mitigation.
Part I: Ingredients: Introduction.- Frameworks for Assessing Tsunami Hazard and Risk.- Source selection and their activity rate.- Source modeling.- Hydrodynamic Modelling.- Exposure Modelling.- Vulnerability Modelling.- Communicating Tsunami Risk and Uncertainties.- Final Remarks.- Part II: Recipes: R1 – The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) - Region-wide probabilistic tsunami hazard based on a large number of tsunami scenarios.- R2 – Local Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis.- R3 – Probabilistic analysis for tsunami hazard in macro tidal coasts.- R4 – Event-tree PTHA of coastal inundation with tidal uncertainty treatment.- R5 – Combination of multiple tsunami rate estimates weighted by uncertainty with likelihood functions: An example runup probability map for the Caribbean region.- R6 – Worst-case tsunami approach applied to Catania (eastern Sicily).- R7 – ASCETE Coupled Earthquake-Tsunami Modelling.- R8 – Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for landslide sources tsunami component – the Lyngen case.- R9 – Probabilistic hazard analysis for tsunamis generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions in the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy.- R10 – Adriatic A-PTHA.- R11 – Surrogate-based PTHA.- R12 – Multi-source (Bayesian) PTHA in the Gulf of Naples, Italy.- R13 – Global Risk Model 2015 - tsunami component - global risk and loss computation.- R14 – Event-based probabilistic earthquake and tsunami risk assessment – application in Acapulco (Mexico) and Callao (Peru).- R15 – Multi-hazard Risk Assessment for Earthquakes and Tsunamis.- R16 – Bayesian Empirical Fragility Assessment for Hierarchical Damage Levels: 2018 Sulawesi-Palu Tsunami.- R17 – Nonlinear Pushover Analysis for Tsunami.- R18 – Analytical vulnerability assessment for Italian buildings portfolio.- R19 – An indicator-based method for the assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to tsunami.- R20 – Monte Carlo approach for tsunami economic impact estimation in a pseudo-probabilistic framework.- R21 – GITEWS End-To-End Early Warning.- R22 – Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting for tsunami warning.- R23 – Use of neural networks for tsunami arrival time and maximum height prediction.- R24 – PTHA-based tsunami inundation mapping in Italy.- R25 – Methodology for tsunami hazard microzoning applied to evacuation decision making.
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