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This book examines the role of social protection and taxation systems in developing countries during times of crises. The main objective of the work is to promote understanding about proper crisis response, and the way social protection and tax systems can be made more sustainable to support countries' paths through and out of economic crises. While there is a vast body of literature evaluating social protection programmes in general, few of these focus on episodes of crisis. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number and scale of social protection programmes increased rapidly around the globe, but many developing countries lacked a systematic approach to social protection and taxation.
Crises have a devastating effect on employment, incomes, and livelihoods. These impacts are more dangerous when people are already in a vulnerable position. This has become very clear during the latest worldwide crises, including the sharp rise in food and fuel prices. Armoured with comprehensive policies and systems for social protection and taxation, developing countries could enable automatic and speedy assistance when crises hit across the entire income distribution. Analogously to the currently standard financial stress testing in anticipation of crises, thorough stress testing of social protection and tax policies is also of crucial importance.
Poor Protection explores to what extent tax-benefit systems can act as automatic stabilizers in a developing country context during crises, and how they can help provide the fiscal space necessary to cushion at least the most detrimental developments in terms of inequality.
1: Jukka Pirttilä, Maria Jouste, Ravi Kanbur, and Pia Rattenhuber: Introduction: Protecting the poor and vulnerable when crises are the New Normal
2: Rodrigo Oliveira, Jesse Lastunen, Pia Rattenhuber, Melissa Samarin, and Adnan Shahir: Strengthening resilience: Investigating the effectiveness of social protection and tax policies in cushioning income and poverty impacts amidst crises in low- and middle-income countries
Part I. Performance of tax-benefit systems during crises
3: Katrin Gasior, Iva V. Tasseva, and Gemma Wright: The impact of social protection on poverty through normal times and times of crisis: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia
4: Jesse Lastunen, Adnan Shahir, Pia Rattenhuber, Kwabena Adu-Ababio, and Rodrigo C. Oliveira: Performance of tax-benefit systems during the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparative perspective
5: David Rodríguez, H. Xavier Jara, Mariana Dondo, Cristina Arancibia, David Macas, Rebeca Riella, Joana Urraburu, Linda Llamas, Luis Huesca, Javier Torres, and Rodrigo Chang: The role of taxes and benefits in protecting household incomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis of seven Latin American countries
6: Antoine de Mahieu and Jesse Lastunen: The cushioning effects of tax-benefit policies in Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic
Part II. Income developments and specific politics during COVID-19
7: Timothy Köhler, Robert Hill, and Haroon Bhorat: The effect of wage subsidies on job retention: Evidence from South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic
8: Cuong Viet Nguyen: The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and aid packages in Vietnam
9: Olivier Bargain, Paul Carillo-Maldonado, and H. Xavier Jara: Top earnings and inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador
Part III. Looking ahead
10: Annalena Oppel: Social protection floor gaps and pandemic relief: Embracing universalism?
11: Enrico Nichelatti, Maria Jouste, and Pia Rattenhuber: The potential of universal basic income schemes to buffer shocks: Comparing Uganda and Zambia during COVID-19
12: Adnan Shahir, Ravi Kanbur, Jukka Pirttilä, and Pia Rattenhuber: Targeted versus universal benefits: Poverty reduction performance in times of crisis
13: Dingquan Miao, Ravi Kanbur, and Jukka Pirttilä: Optimal tax rates for Zambia in the COVID-19 pandemic period
Part IV. Summary and policy takeaways
14: Jukka Pirttilä, Maria Jouste, Ravi Kanbur, and Pia Rattenhuber: Summary
15: Jukka Pirttilä, Maria Jouste, Ravi Kanbur, and Pia Rattenhuber: Policy takeaways
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